“Restraint.” This should be the one-word diplomatic mantra for Australia about Taiwan. It should be the opening and closing of every statement an Australian prime minister utters because a descent into war between the world’s superpowers over a neuralgic issue that diplomacy has constrained for 70 years – this is the last thing our battered and bruised planet wants.

And it should be the last thing Australia should appear to be talking up. The prospect of such a clash producing a nuclear exchange is spookily high. By installing American facilities on our continent we have made Australia a target. That’s reason enough to plant us in the peace camp.

We’re left a bit exposed because alone of America’s allies we have said we will join America if there’s a showdown, presumably within the first week. It’s almost as if in the corridors of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and the Defence department the hawks are humming the World War I recruiting song, Australia Will Be There.

This begs the question: is there any rigorous analysis by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade on how Australia might help avert war, or whether our diplomats are entirely sidelined and relegated.

Canberra needs to commission a document for the national security committee of cabinet that scripts our leaders to press Washington and Beijing on the practical measures that would avoid a descent into war.

Australia's new strategic alliance with the United States and United Kingdom is likely to see more troops, war planes and naval vessels in the Top End. But any expansion could be hindered by the controversial lease of Darwin Port to a Chinese company, national security experts say.

Heralded as the most significant shift in Australia's defence direction in decades, the centrepiece of the trilateral security partnership, dubbed "AUKUS", is a plan to build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.

But Defence Minister Peter Dutton has also flagged a major enhancement in Australia's military cooperation with the US, which currently deploys about 2,500 marines to the Top End each dry season.

John Coyne from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said the 99-year lease of the Darwin Port to Landbridge could prove an impediment to the allies' military expansion plans.

On Saturday, Malaysia joined Indonesia in raising alarm bells about the military build-up in the region and the impact that the AUKUS pact, which includes Australia acquiring nuclear-propelled submarines, could have on regional stability.

Indonesia had for decades pursued an “aktif bebas”, or free and independent foreign policy.

“It’s never going to side with a partisan international alliance, so of course they will be pushing back.”

“They’re also going to be miffed because they were not consulted, just like on the Marines based in Darwin [announced a decade ago]. Despite that they won’t have a real problem, it’s just not in their interests or instincts to side with us.

“[Indonesian President] Jokowi, [Foreign Minister] Retno, [Defence Minister] Prabowo get this, they’re also miffed at what China is doing. They could be domestically wedged by their opponents so no one wants to say it publicly – this is classic south-east Asian behaviour. But like us, they have to balance economic interests and security concerns.”

“ASEAN governments are acutely aware of that and are worried that external powers are creating new architecture that doesn’t include them like the Quad and potentially AUKUS too

It is impossible to read this as anything other than a response to China’s rise, and a significant escalation of American commitment to that challenge. The United States has only ever shared this technology with the United Kingdom, so the fact that Australia is now joining this club indicates that the United States is prepared to take significant new steps and break with old norms to meet the China challenge.

Australia cannot have this capability while assuming that it does not come with heightened expectations that Australia will take America’s side in any dispute with China.

That is the real long-term significance of the deal ­– even more than the agreement to base Marines in Darwin, this deal signals that Australia is betting on the United States as a long-term partner in its region as China’s rise continues.

It is extraordinary that this momentous decision could be made without parliamentary or public scrutiny.

Dutton said the latest talks in Washington had “reinforced our shared commitment to ensuring an alliance that is match-fit to meet the strategic challenges ahead”.

He announced that Australia and the US would be “significantly enhancing our force posture cooperation”, including “greater air cooperation through rotational deployments of all types of US military aircraft to Australia” including bombers.

Dutton also indicated he would like to see an increase in the number of US troops coming on rotation through Darwin.

He said there would be more military exercises with the US, and greater combined exercises with other partners in the region. He was also open to the basing and storage of military supplies in Australia.

Australia’s defence minister says Aukus pact makes region safer and ‘no amount of propaganda can dismiss the facts’